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Will the Jobless Rate Influence Your Vote for President?

The jobless rate has fallen to below 8 percent for the first time in four years.

 

With Republicans and Democrats largely agreeing that Republican candidate Mitt Romney won the first presidential debate this week, there is a new piece of news that could soften the perceived blow to President Barack Obama's campaign.

The U.S. jobless rate fell to 7.8 percent last month, dropping below 8 percent for the first time since Obama moved in to the White House.

The Boston Globe reported that the news could give the Obama camp a boost; it's the same rate as January 2009, when the president took office. 

In the months after the inauguration, the rate increased and topped 8 percent for 43 straight months. In August, it was 8.1 percent.

The jobless rate is determined through a government survey of 60,000 households. The Globe reported that while many of the jobs added last month were part-time jobs, the country could be growing jobs at a faster pace.

What do you make of the news? Do you believe this is a positive for the sitting president? How will it affect your vote? Tell us in the comments.

Related Topics: Election Guide 2012

Jill Onderdonk

7:49 am on Saturday, October 6, 2012

I think that the new jobless rate reflects the improvement in the economy. Manufacturing is increasing nationwide and businesses are experiencing more growth. President Obama's policies are working, despite strong resistance from his opponents. The recession of 2008 was much worse than most people realized and will take many years to overcome. We are on our way now!

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Moe

8:12 am on Saturday, October 6, 2012

if you beleive this report I have some seaside property in colorado you might be interested in. You have to be a village idiot not beleive this is an attempt to recover form Obama's patehtic revealing perfomance.

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Dave Lenane

8:43 am on Saturday, October 6, 2012

Jill, Have you seen a measurement of what sector the jobs created were in? (I would suspect retail and the service industries i.e. low paying) I haven't and I am in the maufacturing sector which you say is increasing. If anything at my job, shipments to US customers are way down, and we are ramping up to ship much more overseas. Lastly Jill, isnt it kind of sad that after 46 months of Obama rule his supporters are saying "We're on our way now!"

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Obaba

10:37 am on Saturday, October 6, 2012

I agree with Moe and Pat. Inaccurate data. Obama is not good for country. Obama has failed
the US citizen what he has promissed 4 year ago. The jobless rate is around 17% instead .

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FF

5:27 pm on Saturday, October 6, 2012

Manufacturing lost 16,000 jobs. Those are the DOL statistics.

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Bruce Gilkison

6:32 pm on Saturday, October 6, 2012

and the quality of these "mystery" jobs is what ? minimum wage ? Christmas help? Obama promised us less than 6% unemployment after his trillion dollar stimulus and guess what? we're still waiting.............he needs to go....

Pat

8:21 am on Saturday, October 6, 2012

I agree with Moe on this one. There are also many of the folks who used their allotted UE benefits and are no longer counted as unemployed. Very curious that this report comes out so close to the election. I hope people are not swayed by this.

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Joshua Lioce

8:35 am on Saturday, October 6, 2012

I agree with Moe and Pat. Inaccurate data

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Dave Lenane

8:48 am on Saturday, October 6, 2012

I'm not going to say its inaccurate as much as it's misleading. Unemployment always falls at this time of year, as holiday help needs to be hired and trained. Macy's alone is hiring 80,000 that need to be in place in a month. They you have UPS, Fed Ex and all the other major retailers. So this news should not be unexpected or even be put to criticism. Americans know that there are jobs out there at this time, and they are going to get them! Republicans and Democrats should be happy at that news. But is this a trend that will crash hard in January and February, which is why Obama's supporters faith should be ummmmm...tempered!

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Mark Cain

9:24 am on Saturday, October 6, 2012

Your just numb if you believe the jobless rate. You have taken the blue pill.

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Jan Galkowski

9:31 am on Saturday, October 6, 2012

Presidents of any stripe can do very little about the jobless rate or, for that matter, the state of the economy. They are criticized for it when it is bad, and take credit for it when it is good. Nevertheless, their actions have nothing to do with it.

I will continue to support President Obama in his re-election efforts irrespective of the jobless rate, because, as Richard Dawkins commented, "Who 'won' the debate? Who had the best policies? Best zingers? The elephant in the room is that one candidate's beliefs are BARKING MAD ... Romney really IS Mormon in the full loony sense."

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Joe Kane

8:15 am on Monday, October 8, 2012

Jan - It's too bad that you are making a choice for President based upon your religious bigotry. If you really hate Mormons so, why don't you just come right out and say it?!

The economy is not picking up steam. The manufacturing sector is not hiring and are still laying off people periodically. The President of the United States DOES have impact on the jobless rate, becasue the POTUS is supposed to provide leadership for ALL Americans in working out of these types of situations, not just those that contribute to their election campaigns or meet their ideological lithmus test. This President has not lead at all. He has left it to others and only supports them if he thinks that they will win. He would rather do that than join with the other side and work on non-partisen solutions that are best for the country. He's got to go! And if Romney comes in and does the same thing, then he will be a one-term President as well.

Proud Resident of Northborough

9:32 am on Saturday, October 6, 2012

Whether the number is real or not is irrelevant to me. Either way, 7.8% is still terrible. This is an example of the administration setting the bar extremely low, and then boasting when they finally clear it. We deserve better.

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Deb Nilan

9:42 am on Saturday, October 6, 2012

President Obama stated that the jobless rate would decrease to 5.6% with his stimulus package....that never happened. And that was over 3 years ago. I too am very suspect of this report and the timing of it. The numbers just don't make sense. Do the math....The .03% drop means the number of unemployed people dropped by 456,000 when only 114k jobs were created Where did all these people go? Very skeptical.

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Brian Smith

10:07 am on Saturday, October 6, 2012

I too don't believe these numbers. Yes it is the beginning of the holiday temporary work season but those jobs are just temorary. If there was only 114,000 new jobs added the rate would still be around 8% They are not counting some part of the unemployed. I read that only 63.6% of people polled for the report actually took part in the poll and that is the lowest number in years. These numbers will be revised about a week after the election. Go back and look at August's numbers and compare them to these. In August 134,00 jobs were added and the rate dropped from 8.3% to 8.1% so how does it work out that ifyou add 20,000 less jobs the rate drops twice as much? You don't count all the people who left the work force or lost unemployment benifits.

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Joescarp

10:28 am on Saturday, October 6, 2012

It's unbelievably good news...and I mean that in the sense that it's not believable that just one month before the election, the rate drops to just below what it needs to for Obama to say, "I told you so!" Almost every economist and financial expert, including his financial czar who lowered the rates one more time two weeks ago, were predicting worse, not better news.

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Jim Gallagher

11:43 am on Saturday, October 6, 2012

It is good news. A step in the right direction. Pundints now tell us Obama controls these numbers for his own benefit. Romney and Ryan have no interest in resolution - borrowing a line from "The American President" - they have no desire to solve problems. They want to make you afraid of it and then tell you who to blame. We have seen true colors - have you seen Romney sneeking unallowed notes onto his podium? Have you read the independent reviews whose fact checkers found 53 errors in his comments? This is sad. Abandon the dark side and come into the light and become a part of the discussion and not the baseless accusations. Remember - hope is the gift we give ourselves.

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Brian Smith

11:54 am on Saturday, October 6, 2012

I see youdidn't fact check the president? He has as many errors and distortions as Romney does. They are liars. Being a small business man who made 15 grand less last year but paid 1200 more in taxes despite the presidents claim he gave me. Also in the two years since Obamacare was passed my health insurance premiums went up 40% while my copays doubled, despite being promised lower premiums. I don't believe a word either one says anymore I fact check every add and statemnet

Cheryl Demers

11:57 am on Saturday, October 6, 2012

I believe this is incorrect, the reason I believe this is because I have not worked for a year, I did not collect unemployment, did not collect food stamps and I am not on welfare, so how would anyone know I am not working? It is probably the same for people who have run out of unemployment and couldn't find a job, or homeless people, they are just not counted! People are kidding themselves, if something doesn't change this country is in big trouble...

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Brian Smith

12:13 pm on Saturday, October 6, 2012

Unfortunately Cheryl you are one of many people are unemployed and not counted. I hope things change for you soon.

Patty

12:19 pm on Saturday, October 6, 2012

This jobs report has not influenced me one bit. During the debate, Romney Flip-Flop was not telling us what he will do when he is in office. Romney Flip-Flop was just telling us what we want to hear to get elected and it appears lied as well.
I don’t like the voucher plan he has planned for Medicare. I also want to know if Romney Flip-Flop took part in the 2009 international tax cheaters amnesty program. The Romney Ryan presidency will not be good for this country or women.
I have a problem with the positions of both candidates but I believe that Obama is a good man and wants to do right by this country. Hopefully this next presidency will work together. I vote for my best interests, human rights, freedom of choice, and the 47%.

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Brian Smith

1:26 pm on Saturday, October 6, 2012

I see someone is watching and believing every democratic scare add. The adds from both sides are so grossly distorted you have to fact check them to get the truth. Both sides lie and miss represnt what few facts they really use in their adds.

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Patty

2:31 pm on Saturday, October 6, 2012

Brian Smith,

I understand that and do "fact check" for what that is even worth. For me, the lesser of two evils is not Romney Flip-Flop as stated in my first response. I am still waiting for the "facts" to see if Romney Flip-Flop took part in the 2009 International Tax cheaters amnesty program so I can see if his character is worse than I thought. I also think that the Republican Party doesn't even like Romney Flip-Flop but they are now stuck with him and lying Ryan. Romney Flip Flop is telling the people what they want to hear "now" so he can get elected but once in office he will do what he wants. This is what I beleive. Obama-Biden 2012 I vote for my best interests, human rights, freedom of choice, and the 47%.

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Peg

3:24 pm on Saturday, October 6, 2012

I guess you watched a different debate than I did. Did Sesame Street have a debate at the same time?

I heard Romney state to Jim Lehrer - the moderator - that in essence even his job was going to be on the line, because he's going to cut PBS funding, which is the right thing to do. There are many shows that will remain on PBS, but for a non-profit to be paying outrageous salaries to their executives with government money is frivolous and just wrong.

Obama is a failure and he proved it with this debate - no teleprompter, no answers. Instead of concentrating on getting this country back to work he worked diligently to socialize health insurance that's going to cost trillions we don't have and spend trillions more for a bail out that was a disastrous fiasco. How anyone can vote for his reelection is beyond me.

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Brian Smith

8:43 pm on Saturday, October 6, 2012

And a large part of the 47% are people like the Obama phone lady from Cleveland,
http://now.msn.com/obama-phone-video-attracts-criticism-from-conservatives watch this and spend some time living in a city like I did. I lived in worcester for 18 years there are a lot more people living off the system than pay into it. Far more in the last 3 years. The truely needy are the ones who suffer because programs meant to help and assist then are over run with people who refuse to work.

Martin D Becker

12:30 pm on Saturday, October 6, 2012

Nothing a president can do can effect the unemployment rate over the short term. When Obama took office, the future course of the economy was on an inexorable path for the next few years. It was set on that course by fighting two wars without paying for them except for the money which could be saved by cutting back on government expenditures such as enforcement of financial regulations.

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paula from Westwood

12:44 pm on Saturday, October 6, 2012

DON'T DRINK THE "KOOL AID!" These numbers are a sham!!! Many people have given up looking for work. Many people are under the radar as unemployed. WAKE UP!

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Dennis Wilson

1:40 pm on Saturday, October 6, 2012

I've heard several different people, government and independent people, interviewed who explained how these numbers are calculated each month. It is a rather involved process. Two different departments and lots of different people involved; the recurring statements are that too many people are involved for manipulation of the numbers to occur and that political appointees are not involved in generating this number. Jack Welch admitted he has no evidence to support his tweet. My thought is that, given the number of people involved in generating this number, someone would have blown the whistle, by now, if the fix was in. I've heard more than one person interviewed who said is that the unemployment rate (the %) should be routinely ignored and people should pay attention to the number of jobs added or lost instead.
And given what Ed Bertorelli pointed out about comments in these posts in another thread yesterday, I'll be ignoring any responses that are insulting, offensive or otherwise abrasive. Thanks for making that point, Ed.

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Dennis Wilson

1:41 pm on Saturday, October 6, 2012

I've asked the following question before but no one seems to have an answer. Romney has said he wants to increase defense spending by $2 trillion. The Pentagon has not asked for this money. What is Romney going to do with $2 trillion more in defense spending if the Pentagon has not imagined a use for the money? And importantly, where is the $2 trillion going to come from?
And given what Ed Bertorelli pointed out about comments in these posts in another thread yesterday, I'll be ignoring any responses that are insulting, offensive or otherwise abrasive. Thanks for making that point, Ed.

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Peg

3:06 pm on Saturday, October 6, 2012

Perhaps the 2 trillion is going to come from the abolishment of Obamacare? Romney said that's one of the first items on his agenda, to abolish it, and thank God for that!!!

Perhaps Mr. Romney is going to spend some of the 2 trillion dollars PROTECTING OUR EMBASSIES IN PLACES LIKE LIBYA??? Something that Obama refused to do when they asked for additional security???? If I were a member of any of those families who were tortured, raped and killed I'd be pretty upset about that news that just came out.

Linda Worthy

2:19 pm on Saturday, October 6, 2012

Keith Hall, former Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner, who was appointed by President George W. Bush, said this about the unemployment numbers being manipulated:

“I understand people’s frustrations and suspicion when the unemployment goes down, you know right before an election. But in reality all the federal statistical agencies, including the Bureau of Labor of Statistics, they’re independent agencies. They have a long tradition of being very professional and very nonpolitical and it would be very, very difficult to rig these numbers even if you wanted too. And it would be extremely risky to get caught trying to do that. So, there’s a long, long history of these agencies being independent and doing their best to estimate these numbers, and to my knowledge there’s never been an issue with any of these agencies changing the numbers for political reasons.”
"I don’t think there’s any way this could happen. There’s certainly a zero chance that this could happen and somebody could get away with it. I can tell you the Bureau Labor of Statistics is a very independent professional organization and that would never happen.”

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/05/cnns-gut-check-for-october-5-2012-2/?iref=allsearch

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Linda Worthy

2:52 pm on Saturday, October 6, 2012

Former General Electric CEO Jack Welch, whose tweet about the Chicago guys changing the unemployment numbers started an uproar, told Anderson Cooper late Friday:

“I should have put a question mark on the end of that, let’s face it.”

“I said something that's just completely wrong,"

Romney told Sean Hannity on Fox News concerning a video taped comment where he said:

“All right, there are 47 percent who are with him, who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims, who believe that government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you name it.”

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82096.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57526535/romney-47-percent-remarks-completely-wrong/

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Peg

3:14 pm on Saturday, October 6, 2012

“All right, there are 47 percent who are with him, who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims, who believe that government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you name it.”

And what's wrong with that statement? IT'S TRUE!!!!

While there are many (my family members included) disabled, mentally challenged, etc people in this country who are so deserving of government help, you know as well as I do that there are MILLIONS of people out there with their hands out EXPECTING to be taken care of when they are perfectly able to work or are here illegally (i.e. "Aunti Obama" living off the free land in Boston while homeless veterans who fought for freedom can't find a place to live and are on the streets).

THAT is what Romney was talking about, and it's a true, honest statement.

And keep your links. I don't watch anything from the liberal mainstream media-Obama is their Messiah and they're all drinking the kool-aid.

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Francis P. Ardito,Sr

3:35 pm on Saturday, October 6, 2012

Ms. Linda, this was also reported on the NBC Today Show. "Neutron Jack" Welch was quoted. What was omitted by our newspapers was that 130,000 workers were laid off also. Big companies such as Google and Hewlitt-Packard have announced lay offs too.

Ed Bertorelli

4:40 pm on Saturday, October 6, 2012

Interesting column in todays Huffington Post in the Politics Blog section by left-leaning former NYTimes, African- American, columnist Bob Herbert- "No More Excuses". The lead off line being 'it is time to stop making excuses for Barak Obama'.The column continues to outline a string of failures and absence of leadership. Maybe the Clint Eastwood routine was more telling than the media thought at the time.

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Linda Worthy

4:52 pm on Saturday, October 6, 2012

Monthly job reports are almost always revised in the months after they are released. This is a routine occurrence regardless of time of year, election cycle or who occupies the White House. Revising the numbers - up or down -- is part of the process.

“The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for JULY was revised from
+141,000 to +181,000, and the change for AUGUST was revised from +96,000 to
+142,000.” http://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

And unless retail begins their hiring for the Christmas season in July & August...
*********
Layoffs are accounted for in the BLS process. One can go to their site and read the process. It's pretty complicated and it ends up with a total number of jobs added or jobs lost. They report "the CHANGE...in employment" plus or minus.
**********
Last night, Piers Morgan asked John McCain if he would kill Big Bird. McCain, who generally opposes Congressional earmarks, said he could probably find an earmark to save Big Bird.
Will Roms now say that he was "just completely wrong" to say he would kill Big Bird?
*********
I don't usually respond to posts that diverge from reality ("If I were a member of any of those families who were tortured, raped...") TORTURED? RAPED?

However, I can't resist this:
Why do you now disagree with your man Romney?
He told Hannity on Fox News, “I said something that's just completely wrong" about the 47%.
You say, "IT'S TRUE!!!!"
Does Roms know you say "IT'S TRUE!!!!?"

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Proud Resident of Northborough

6:23 pm on Saturday, October 6, 2012

Over 8% or 7.8%, it DOESN'T matter! Either one is awful. The administration is trying to skate on the economy by setting the bar as low as possible. This is the equivalent of praising your kid for getting four Fs and a D- on his report card, because last time out he had five Fs. It still is abysmal and we deserve better.

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Blanchard Warren

1:56 pm on Sunday, October 7, 2012

The jobless rate is not the issue. The issues is Obama's plan to turn this country is a socialist country. He is a very dangerous person.

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Charles. Garbarino

11:30 pm on Sunday, October 7, 2012

What we have here is clearly a failed POTUS! To say anything other than that, is not reality. Think about that as your fill your car up at the gas pump. Obama did not even do 1/10th of what he said he would! Gasoline has doubled and food prices have escalated and he added 6 trillion dollars to the deficit. The moral of this story is, NEVER make a “Community Organizer”, your president. We need a business man who has created jobs, like Romney. We can’t allow a failed POTUS a second term.

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Dave Lenane

6:23 am on Monday, October 8, 2012

Start at the Wendy's westbound on Rt 9 and drive to the 126 turn around. Then drive back and count how many small businesses are out of business. Don't even count the ones in the Natick Mall. Then come back to me with the answer and tell me how Obama is stimulating the growth of small business in this country!

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Dave Lenane

10:16 am on Monday, October 8, 2012

Dear * ...I thought Obama was the friend to small businesses? Isn't that what he is saying? Isn't that what Warren is saying? How come everytime you hit a Democrat with reality, they get so defensive? Obviou sly the failed policies of Oblamea and the staggering amount he has added to the debt make them that way! Vote Mitt, it will make you feel better! And just so you know...how can I take someone named * seriously???

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*

10:23 am on Monday, October 8, 2012

Dave, the asterisk was an error and was kept there, but lets get a better candidate than Romney, yes? I'm certain the Republican Party has a better option, at least one would think that they do, am I right? Perhaps were given them too much credit at this point in time, who'll know for sure?

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Dave Lenane

11:44 am on Monday, October 8, 2012

*...I think a lot of Republicans wish there was another candidate. But there isn't. I try to tell myself to keep an open mind. A lot of my friends are voting Obama. And maybe I'm naive to still believe in Main Street America. But its what I wish for...Main St is still thriving in some sections of our country. Lastly I never they were Mom and Pop stores that were closed. Not all of them are. But if a small business can't survive and compete on that busy stretch of highway....then where can they?

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*

9:49 am on Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Well Dave, I vividly do recall the very 1st time that I was in the presence of Mitt Romney, or should I say, he had the fortunate pleasure of being in my personal space, although the jury is still out on that factoid, anyway, it was @The World HQ's of The Staples Company in Framingham. Up until that time, I've worked directly with the public for over thirty years in different parts of the country, and his very inflection at that moment in time, felt so fabricated and distant, that a visually impaired person easily could tell in a heartbeat. Sure it may be years of cultivating that persona for the Public Eye, but it was more than that for me, it was, what folks call in the industry a "WIT" attitude, which is a "Whatever It Takes" a chosen mode of behavior and stance, which may be okay for folks like he, who are in the public eye for their chosen career, but it had a wave of superfluous being behind its cadence & aura.
Its been almost 9 years, and I can still see & feel that like it was yesterday. Perhaps a gut feeling that we come equipped with as a human being, I guess, but its certainly feels so very real to me, to this very day, too!

Townie

8:48 am on Monday, October 8, 2012

The data is as false as Obama's birth certificate. And anyone who believes it has over dosed on the Kool aid .

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Chris L.

12:11 pm on Monday, October 8, 2012

Adding Government jobs does nothing to boost the economy...sure, these people get back to work, but the deficit increases.

Private sector jobs!!!!

Its the Economy, stupid!!!

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*

10:03 am on Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Chris, there's no reason to make a besmirched comment in your reply. After all, its only conversation on a daily blog, lighten up.

Linda Worthy

3:02 pm on Monday, October 8, 2012

Many smaller retail businesses have moved to the internet. The rent is cheaper; open 24 hours a day; not limited to local foot/road traffic; not effected by inclement weather; lower inventory costs, etc. If one were to wander around eBay one might notice it has moved well beyond its original auction focus to hosting space for 'mom & pop' retailers. Many brick & mortar bookstores have closed because selling books on line is cheaper. Amazon.com makes it very easy to buy books, tapes and a great many other things. When searching for a specific publication, Amazon lists many other sellers such as used or rare book stores -- both virtual and physical --from which one can order a book. The internet changed the nature of 'mom & pop' retailing.

Jeb Bush would have made a fine, respectable, creditable Republican candidate for president who no one would have to humanize nor would he have to be saying to Hannity "I was completely wrong". Now the only possible national political fate Jeb has left is to be crushed by Hillary in 2016.

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Dave Lenane

5:49 pm on Monday, October 8, 2012

Victoria Kennedy would have been a fine choice for Senate. Too bad she has no desire!

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